Market research
Build the evidence
Research finds relevant facts and frames what may happen.
Turn uncertainty into decisions you can inspect.
Hedge Layer is the intelligence and planning layer between a question and a position. Research an event, find the markets that price it, test the evidence, and make the gaps explicit.
Source-linked evidence Explicit uncertainty No-trade is valid
The missing layer
AI opinions are abundant. Accountable decisions are not.
A decision needs more than a forecast: relevant contracts, source-linked evidence, explicit uncertainty, available liquidity, and a clear account of what is missing.
Exchanges or brokerage firms
Provide market access
Venues expose prices, available liquidity, and execution rails.
Hedge Layer
Govern the decision
Connect evidence, market reality, and explicit limits before action.
From question to decision
An opinion is not a plan.
Hedge Layer keeps each step separate and inspectable, so a strong narrative cannot silently become an unjustified action.
01Define
Start with the uncertainty
State the event, thesis, or risk you need to understand. Keep the objective and limits visible from the start.
02Estimate
Build an independent view
Research current evidence, find relevant contracts, and express the forecast as a range rather than false precision.
03Check
Test it against the market
Compare the evidence with live prices, timing, liquidity, resolution rules, and the quality of the match.
04Decide
Act, watch, or abstain
Leave with an inspectable decision trace—including a clear reason to do nothing when the conditions are not there.
Designed for restraint
Useful when the answer is “not enough evidence.”
Evidence before consensus
Signal analysis forms a source-linked probability range before comparing it with the market price.
Ranges before confidence
Uncertainty, market quality, liquidity, and coverage gaps remain part of the decision—not footnotes after it.
Abstention is an output
A trustworthy system should stop weak actions, not manufacture conviction for every market it finds.
For people
An intelligence workspace
Ask in plain language, research current events, discover relevant markets, and build structured Market Briefs that make causal links and coverage gaps visible.
For tools and agents
An API and CLI
Use the CLI for deterministic market screens and Signal analysis, or call the API-only advanced allocator for dry-run liquidity-allocation recommendations.
Read developer docsAllocator outputs are recommendation-only. Public trade execution is not currently provided by Hedge Layer.
Bring a risk, thesis, or market
Leave with a decision you can inspect.
Build a structured brief, a better shortlist, or a clear reason to do nothing.