Hedge Layer/Docs

Market Discovery

How the AI agent researches topics, discovers relevant prediction markets, and synthesizes structured intelligence.

The heart of Hedge Layer is its AI agent. It researches what's happening in the world, discovers what prediction markets say about it, scores markets for interestingness, and synthesizes a structured Market Brief — all in a single conversation.

How it works

  1. You describe a topic or thesisin plain language (e.g., "What are prediction markets saying about a US recession?")
  2. The AI researches current events using real-time web intelligence to understand context, second-order effects, and causal chains
  3. It searches live Polymarket markets across multiple angles — keyword search, category browsing, related markets, and expanded searches
  4. It scores markets for interestingness — volume spikes, price dislocations, asymmetric setups, catalyst windows, and more
  5. It synthesizes a Market Brief — a structured intelligence report with the best markets, causal reasoning, and coverage gaps

What the AI searches for

The agent uses multiple tools to find signal in the noise:

  • Real-time research — current events, policy responses, and cross-domain connections via Perplexity
  • Market search — keyword search across all active Polymarket markets
  • Category browsing — filtering by tags like politics, crypto, climate, sports
  • Related markets — discovering sibling markets within the same event group
  • Interestingness scoring — composite scoring that surfaces markets worth paying attention to
  • Deep dives — orderbook depth, spread analysis, and signal breakdown for individual markets

What topics can you explore?

Hedge Layer is AI-powered, so you're not limited to a fixed list of categories. Describe any topic, thesis, or risk and the AI will search for what prediction markets say about it. Common examples include:

  • Geopolitics and conflicts
  • Elections and policy decisions
  • Crypto regulation and market events
  • Climate and natural disasters
  • Economic indicators and recession signals
  • Technology, science, and culture

The only constraint is market availability — the AI will tell you honestly if there aren't suitable markets for your particular topic, and suggest proxy markets or causal-chain angles instead.