Signal

Estimate whether market pricing may differ from an evidence-backed probability range.

Signal can receive a Polymarket URL or structured market data from Discovery. Structured inputs support Polymarket and Kalshi; URL mode is Polymarket-only.

What Signal returns

• Estimated YES probability and lower/upper uncertainty bounds.
• Current market probability for comparison.
• Confidence, strength, evidence summary, and source links.
• An abstention when rules, lifecycle, or evidence are inadequate.

Boundary

Signal does not size a position or execute. Its forecast is an analysis input. For Polymarket, continue to Quote to combine it with current selected-token transaction economics.

API and CLI

hl signal analyze "https://polymarket.com/event/example-market"
curl -X POST https://hedgelayer.ai/api/signal/analyze \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer <api-token>" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/example-market"}'